Researchers from UK-HyRES and UKERC at the UCL Institute of Sustainable Resourceshave contributed to a major international study investigating why hydrogen cost estimates can vary significantly even when analysing the same project. Published estimates range from under $1/kg to $13/kg, and it is rarely clear whether this reflects genuine differences in technology and location or differences in how analysts do their sums.
The paper, “How comparable are hydrogen cost estimates?”, has been published in Energy for Sustainable Development as part of the RD20 Hydrogen Technoeconomic Analysis Task Force. The UK contribution was led by Dr Sibimol Luke, Research Fellow, and Professor Paul Dodds, Professor of Energy Systems, with support from the UKRI, UK-HyRES and UK Energy Research Centre programmes.
The international collaboration brought together researchers from Australia, France, Japan, South Africa, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the UK and the USA. Each institution used its own techno-economic model to assess an identical hydrogen production facility: a 50-tonne-per-day electrolyser powered by solar PV in Sri Lanka.
Despite using the same technical inputs, the estimated levelised cost of hydrogen ranged from approximately $7/kg to $11/kg. The study found that nearly two-thirds of the variation arose from differences in assumptions about capital costs and financing rather than hydrogen technology performance itself.
These findings highlight the importance of greater transparency and consistency in hydrogen techno-economic assessments. More robust and comparable cost estimates will help policymakers, investors and industry make better-informed decisions as hydrogen markets continue to develop.
The project has also strengthened UK hydrogen costing capabilities, with insights from the work helping to improve the analytical tools used within UK-HyRES for evaluating future hydrogen production pathways.
“Before we can judge whether a new hydrogen technology is worth backing, we need to be confident that a cost estimate reflects the technology rather than the modeller. Comparing our model with those of six other national research institutes showed exactly where assumptions diverge and has made the UK-HyRES costing tools more robust.”
Professor Paul Dodds, UCL and UK-HyRES
Badgett et al. (2026), How comparable are hydrogen cost estimates?, Energy for Sustainable Development.